first reading: how the tariff threats have already changed canada
internal trade barriers are starting to fall
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first reading is a daily newsletter keeping you posted on the travails of canadian politicos, all curated by the national post’s own tristin hopper. to get an early version sent directly to your inbox, sign up here.
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although u.s. president donald trump has continued to warn that ruinous tariffs against canada could be right around the corner, the threats have mostly lost the potency of late january, when the country genuinely prepared for an all-out trade war with its largest trading partner.
trump is still vowing to impose 25 per cent tariffs on canadian goods on march 4. while it seems the trade war is less likely to come, the threats have already prompted a substantial reordering of canadian politics, policy and its economy.
below, a cursory survey of how canada has already been changed by the threat of trump tariffs.
a bunch of new spending (obviously)
when canada seemed closest to an all-out trade war with the united states at the end of january, one of the most immediate promises of canadian governments was to spend massive quantities of debt-financed money. newfoundland and labrador premier andrew furey, who has since announced his resignation, even requested a program of “covid-style” spending from the federal government.
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those promises have tapered off a little, but this week ontario premier doug ford promised $40 billion in new spending, specifically framing it as a way to offset threats from the trump white house. it’s a lot of money — about $2,500 per ontarian — and includes measures such as $10 billion in employer tax deferrals and a $5-billion “protect ontario account” that would be given the generalized mission to defend against u.s. tariffs.
alberta has also inaugurated a $4 billion fund to deal with any future tariffs, and any other kind of economic chaos that might occur as a result of the trump white house.
more second world war rhetoric than usual
the second world war is still the most logistically complex government project that canada has ever taken up, which means it often scores a mention in public discussions of grand government visions.
but multiple government officials are now citing the war as the only event in living memory that could hope to compare to the threat of a trade war with the united states.
b.c.’s recent speech from the throne called the current climate the “most consequential time for our province since the second world war” — and then proceeded to make multiple references to b.c.’s quick ramping-up of industrial production during the conflict. in last month’s liberal leadership debates, candidate chrystia freeland similarly called trump “the biggest threat to canada since world war two.”
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there does seem to be a national movement underway to cut red tape
every politician claims to hate “red tape” in the abstract, only to fiercely defend the specific red tape they have power over. but trump’s economic threats against canada appear to have spawned a legitimate phenomenon of politicians pledging to bring down regulatory barriers that have existed for generations.
b.c. premier david eby has pledged to fast-track the environmental screening on at least 18 mining and energy projects. eby has also proposed a “coalition of the willing” to bring down interprovincial trade barriers; one example being the fact that b.c. has different professional licensing standards than the other nine provinces. eby said he was willing to harmonize his standards with any other province willing to do likewise.
nova scotia has taken it one step further: a bill in their legislature has proposed that anything produced in one of the other provinces is automatically approved to be sold in nova scotia. if, say, a bushel of apples harvested in b.c. meets b.c. standards, nova scotia is saying that this is good enough for them.
saskatchewan premier scott moe simply declared that any oil and gas pipelines across his province were “pre-approved.” of course, moe only has jurisdiction over pipeline projects that exist exclusively within saskatchewan’s borders — all the other kinds require federal approval.
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the border is slightly more secure than it used to be
the trump white house has purportedly held off on its trade war threats because canada boosted its border security. the u.s. has complained about lax migration screening and illegal fentanyl exports into the u.s.
ottawa has made moves on both issues, but the border security that’s getting the most attention has been a simple increase in uniformed personnel and equipment. two black hawk helicopters leased by the rcmp, in particular, have scored dozens of mentions in both u.s. and canadian media. the rcmp has also been warning u.s. border communities not to be alarmed at the low-flying military-style aircraft, as they’re merely part of new “broader security efforts.”
buy canadian measures
some of the most visible outcomes of the current u.s./canada spat have been the most minor: canadians cancelling their annual vacations to south florida, boycotts of u.s. produced goods, the ottawa café that stopped selling americanos in favour of “canadianos.”
a version of this has similarly been pursued by municipal and provincial governments. several provinces have announced plans to permanently reduce the amount of u.s. products on the shelves of government liquor stores. new brunswick, for instance, has declared that once it sells off its existing u.s. inventory it’s not going to be buying any more.
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multiple municipalities have also sworn to avoid u.s. products and services. vancouver city council passed a unanimous motion declaring that municipal contracts would go to canadian firms instead of u.s. firms wherever possible. kitchener did the same — and then their council stood to sing o canada after passing the motion.
there’s already been an anti-trump reordering of canadian politics
ontario premier doug ford just won a historic third term in part because he called an election in which he was able to successfully frame himself as the “captain canada” answer to trump.
and while ford has a new mandate because of his opposition to trump, canada has already lost two senior political figures in part because their anti-trump credentials weren’t in order. the most obvious is prime minister justin trudeau, who was forced out by his own liberal party in part due to claims that he wasn’t taking u.s. tariff threats seriously enough.
and newfoundland and labrador’s furey just announced his surprise departure from politics, in part because he didn’t want to deal with trump anymore. as furey said in his resignation comment, trump is an “erratic, crazy, bonkers president.”
in other news
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one of the newest electoral liabilities for conservative leader pierre poilievre is that canadians really, really hate u.s. president donald trump for constantly threatening to annex them. poilievre has had nothing to do with trump, but seems to be getting tarred by association simply by being a right-wing populist who inveighs against “wokism” and enjoys insulting nicknames (carbon tax carney, etc.). given all that, it’s likely to poilievre’s benefit that trump didn’t have particularly kind words for the conservative leader in a recent interview with the spectator. “i don’t like what he’s saying about me. it’s just not positive about me,” said trump, adding that poilievre is “not a maga guy.”
(also, this is where we should mention the stunning novelty of a u.s. president not only knowing the name of the canadian opposition leader, but having strong opinions on him. here’s a guess that in trump’s first term, he didn’t know who andrew scheer was.)
one of the unique humiliations offered by the westminster system is that a party leader can not only lose the election, but also fail to win their own seat. that happened thursday night to ontario liberal leader bonnie crombie. her best prospect going into the election was that she might emerge as opposition leader in a new ontario legislature. instead, she’s not in said legislature, and her liberals are once again in third place.
the canadian press/nathan denette
liberal leadership contender mark carney is new to politics, which might be why he keeps making extremely rookie mistakes. earlier this week was his claim that he had nothing to do with his company brookfield asset management moving from toronto to new york city – a claim that was swiftly debunked by a dec. 1 shareholder letter in which carney endorsed the move. and when carney first entered the liberal leadership race he said, “i have resigned all of my positions, full stop.” to debunk this claim, all national post had to do was call up all those prior positions and ask if carney had resigned. five of them reported that he hadn’t.
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