daphne bramham: taiwan can teach canada a thing or two about chinese interference
almost every day for months, chinese fighter planes breach taiwan’s airspace and drones fly around its perimeter forcing taiwan to scramble its own jets.
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taipei, taiwan — in the airport arrivals hall, a giant screen flanked by constantly changing flight details runs a looping video that warns of foreign interference in the coming 2024 presidential election.
cartoon figures accompany warnings in chinese and english that urge people to be on the alert.
“you might just discover that everything is a ruse set up by country b!” reads one panel.
country b is china.
the public service announcement mentions that taiwan is not alone in this, noting that the united states has also been targeted. it could now be amended to add canada, which last week expelled chinese diplomat zhao wei for attempting to intimidate conservative mp michael chong by threatening his family in hong kong.
it’s not clear how effective the airport messaging is since few seemed to be paying attention.
certainly not the group wearing t-shirts printed with the image of their arriving friend, who unrolled a long red banner welcoming him home, or the young man struggled into a green suit that inflated, suddenly making it appear as if he were being held up by an alien with his short legs dangling.
despite the buoyant mood in the crowded arrivals hall, taiwan is not only prepared for a chinese disinformation campaign, it’s preparing for a conventional war.
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elections here are not only about electing a government. they are de facto referenda on taiwan’s existence.
supporting the democratic progressive party means insisting on democracy and the island’s right to decide its own fate.
a vote for the kuomintang (kmt) — the party of sun yat-sen and chiang kai-shek — is an acceptance that economic prosperity, peace and stability depend on appeasing china and possibly even accepting reunification under the same “one china: two systems” policy that has failed so miserably in hong kong.
while the kmt has yet to choose its 2024 presidential candidate, it’s not insignificant that former kmt leader ma ying-jeou went to china in march — the same week that taiwan’s president tsai ing-wen was in the united states. it was the first visit by any current or former top-level taiwanese politician to the mainland since 1949 when the kmt fled after losing a civil war to the communists. and while ma didn’t meet any officials this time, he did meet with chinese president xi jinping in 2015 only a few months before tsai defeated him.
almost every day for months, chinese fighter planes breach taiwan’s airspace and drones fly around its perimeter, forcing taiwan to scramble its own jets. in april, it used its navy to simulate a blockade of the island.
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but if fear isn’t enough to sway voters, pro-beijing forces are also ramping up cyber, digital and social-media attacks.
“we’re being very careful about the possible threat (of interference) to our presidential election,” joseph hua, director-general of mainland affairs, said at a briefing for foreign journalists.
he mentioned guarding against fake news and disinformation, identifying the proxies and influencers mobilized by china, as well as the importance of having the necessary legislation to dissuade unwanted interference.
in a case study of china’s interference in taiwan, academics wu jieh-min and liao mei write: “propaganda warfare is a crucial element of china’s foreign influence operations.”
they noted that during the first presidential election in 1996, beijing conducted missile exercises in the 180-kilometre-wide taiwan strait.
six years later, it deployed taiwanese tycoons to deliver the message that continued prosperity, peace and stability was only possible with unification under the “one country: two systems” model. and it used pro-beijing media owners to spread the message both during and between elections.
wu and liao concluded that china failed partly because the taiwan government reacted with laws and regulations to prevent foreign interference and influence.
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but mostly, they credited civil society. china’s message failed to resonant with voters who were well aware of how china was systematically dismantling the rights and freedoms hong kong was supposed to have enjoyed under the “two systems” model, which was originally devised for taiwan.
in a recent poll, 83.6 per cent of the 1,072 people surveyed rejected the model, and 88.9 per cent told researchers at the national election study center of national chengchi university that they preferred maintaining the uneasy status quo that delays any decision on either independence or unification until later.
none of this sits well with beijing.
foreign minister joseph wu said beijing has turned taiwan into “a testing ground” for increasingly sophisticated attempts to interfere in other countries’ democratic elections, influence their outcomes, and sway public opinion.
“sometimes they succeed and sometimes they fail,” wu said at a briefing for foreign journalists. “nevertheless, taiwan has learned some very important lessons about these chinese influence operations.”
other countries and experts have asked taiwan for help arming themselves against influence operations and disinformation campaigns.
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taiwan is also china’s testing ground for cyber warfare and attacks on sophisticated computer systems that might operate everything from power plants to missile delivery systems.
“taiwan’s cybersecurity is very advanced thanks to our neighbour next door, who has been attacking us for the last 10 years,” said connie chang, director-general of overall planning. “it’s a very important part of our national defence.”
the united states, the european union and others have come here looking for help and advice about that.
canada is not among them … yet.
“it is good for the canadian government to recognize that china is the problem and is trying to deal with that problem,” wu said, referring to recent revelations about attempts to interfere with canadian politicians and members of its chinese diaspora.
“if the canadian government thinks that there is anything that taiwan can share, we would like to share that experience.”
wu said taiwan has learned that standing up to china has consequences. but as he and other government officials were quick to point out, so does appeasement.
canada and canadians learned about retaliation the hard way in 2018 when huawei executive meng wanzhou was detained at the request of the u.s. for extradition to face charges of bank fraud, wire fraud and conspiracy to commit both.
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canadians michael kovrig and michael spavor spent two-and-a-half years in jail in retaliation. canadian canola and beef producers had their products banned.
last week, after canada expelled a chinese diplomat for cause, china threw out one of ours in pique. and that may not be the end of it.
for decades, surveys have found canadians to be generally ambivalent about communist china. but the two michaels’ incarceration soured them. now, there is almost unanimous agreement that chinese government interference is a threat to our democracy, according to a nanos research poll done in february.
as sophisticated as beijing’s attempts are to influence the outcome of democratic elections, it has so far failed the most basic test of democratic elections.
far from swaying voters to its side, it has hardened voters’ attitudes against the people’s republic of china.
there is no charm in its offensive.
daphne bramham was in taiwan at the invitation of the government along with 29 other journalists from 24 countries.
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