lilley: what to make of the wild swings in federal poll numbers
the conservatives suddenly have a big lead again after the liberals had taken the lead
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the latest polling shows the conservatives with a wide lead again, which means exactly nothing. anyone paying attention to political public opinion polling in canada could easily get a case of whiplash.
the conservatives had a big lead, then suddenly some polls showed the liberals taking over, at least if mark carney was leader, now the conservatives have a big lead again.
what does all this mean?
it basically means we’re in a period of instability, there are a lot of moving parts, and it will take some time for canadians to make up their minds. the resignation of justin trudeau, the imminent election of a new liberal leader, and perhaps most importantly, the uncertainty caused by donald trump with regular threats coming from the white house are all factors in what we are seeing in the polls.
in polling, you look for trends, not the result of a single poll by a single firm.
right now, the only clear trend in all the polls is that the ndp is losing support. the fluctuations between the pierre poilievre conservatives and the leaderless but soon to have a new leader liberals will likely continue for a little bit, especially if the new liberal leader calls an election shortly after taking over.
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the latest leger poll for postmedia is a positive one for poilievre and his team. it shows the conservatives at 43% compared to the trudeau-led liberals at 30% and the ndp at 13%.
when leger put the carney-led liberals up against the poilievre-led conservatives, the polling switched to 41% for the conservatives, 33% for the liberals and 12% for the ndp.
a poll released last week by leger had the carney-led liberals beating the poilievre-led conservatives 40% to 38% with the ndp at 11%.
what changed?
first off, carney made some bad mistakes over the last week. secondly, the leger poll showing the liberals beating the conservatives relied on the liberals taking 40% of the vote in quebec while the bloc and conservatives each took 24%, and on the liberals taking 50% of the vote in b.c.
the recent high point for the liberals in b.c. was 2015 when they took 17 seats with 35% of the vote. it’s unlikely they would be able to take 50% of all votes now in b.c., a province that is often a three-way fight. as for the liberals taking 40% while the bloc is reduced to 24%, that simply won’t happen and in fact, is not reflected in this most-recent leger poll or other polls that have the liberals doing well.
the favourable leger poll was taken before the liberal leadership debate and in french media. the day after carney’s passable but not impressive performance in french, one of the main discussion points was how poorly carney would fare in a french debate against bloc leader yves-françois blanchet and poilievre.
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while french is poilievre’s second language, he speaks it very well, something that has been noticed in quebec.
carney also made mistakes in claiming that he helped paul martin balance the budget when he never even worked for the federal government until long after the budget was balanced and after martin was no longer finance minister. in addition to taking credit for work he didn’t do with martin, carney was also criticized by former prime minister stephen harper for taking too much credit for his role in the 2008-09 financial crisis, which harper said was spearheaded by the late jim flaherty.
he also got into trouble for saying he had nothing to do with moving the headquarters of brookfield asset management to n.y.c. from toronto when he actually chaired the board meeting where the unanimous vote took place. later, he claimed canada is the biggest supplier of semiconductors to the united states when in fact we are less than 1% of their market.
basically, between one poll and the other, carney faced scrutiny, and it may be a factor in changing the polling.
this is one of the reasons that he and his team are looking to call an election as soon as possible, so that carney can get away without answering tough questions. we could see an election call as soon as march 16 with voting day on april 22.
