tank: ndp staring down historic collapse in its saskatchewan 'birthplace'
3 minute read
federal ndp leader jagmeet singh greets supporters at the campaign office of the party's saskatoon west candidate rachel loewen walker on april 9.
an exuberant rachel loewen walker reminded an estimated 300 ndp supporters crammed into her saskatoon west campaign office last week that saskatchewan is considered the party’s “birthplace.”
the new democratic party was formed in 1961 in ottawa in a merger including the co-operative commonwealth federation, which started in saskatchewan. and the new party overwhelmingly elected saskatchewan premier tommy douglas as its first federal leader.
so the party’s saskatchewan roots remain indelible even as it stares down an unprecedented collapse in support in its home province.
in the 20 federal elections since its birth, the ndp has only dipped below 20 per cent of the vote in saskatchewan once, 18 per cent in 1963.
the party has only finished in third place a handful of times, including its first three elections, when it still averaged 22 per cent, and in 2004, when it managed 23 per cent.
in the federal ndp’s worst showing, in 1993 under audrey mclaughlin, the party still got 27 per cent in saskatchewan (in third place, slightly behind the reform party), which sent five new democrat mps to ottawa. that gave saskatchewan a majority of the ndp’s nine elected members.
but polling suggests the party’s saskatchewan streak of six straight second-place federal finishes will end april 28.
a survey of online panellists conducted by rubicon strategy and commissioned by the saskatchewan urban municipalities association suggests ndp support in saskatchewan has plummeted to historic lows.
the survey of 747 residents from april 5 to 10, published monday by the cbc, shows ndp support in saskatchewan at 11 per cent of respondents, well behind the conservatives (38 per cent) and the liberals (25 per cent). twenty per cent were undecided.
the poll lacks a margin of error since it is not a random sampling of the general public. but it does reflect trends seen elsewhere.
advertisement
the poll aggregate site 338canada.com shows the ndp trailing in third place in all 14 saskatchewan seats.
that mirrors the national picture where ndp support has bled to the liberals since mark carney became leader. pierre poilievre’s conservatives have lost little ground at nearly 40 per cent, but sit consistently in second place and well behind in seat projections.
the donald trump factor has undeniably shaped this election. yet the last time canadian-american relations played such a large role in a federal campaign — 1988’s free trade election — the ndp got 44 per cent of the saskatchewan vote and won 10 seats.
since that lone first-place finish, though, the party has only cracked 30 per cent twice, in 1997, when five ndp mps were elected, and in 2011, when the party was shut out.
in 2021, the ndp finished second in all but two saskatchewan races. saskatchewan led all provinces with 59 per cent support for the conservatives and trailed all provinces with less than 11 per cent for the liberals. the ndp got 21 per cent.
now, the ndp and the liberals appear to have switched roles. the rubicon strategy survey suggests closer races in saskatoon (43 per cent conservative, 38 per cent liberal, 13 per cent ndp) and regina (42 per cent conservative, 37 per cent liberal, 11 per cent ndp).
but the northern riding of desnethe—missinippi—churchill river remains the only safe bet to flip to liberal. ralph goodale’s former regina—wascana seat is also considered close.
overall, the ndp seems hindered by the unpopularity of its leader, jagmeet singh, who attracted a devoted crowd at loewen walker’s office, but trails all federal leaders in net favourable/unfavourable ratings in the saskatchewan survey at minus 24.
poilievre is at plus three, carney breaks even, premier scott moe is plus one and donald trump sits at minus 58.
advertisement
inexplicably, the provincial ndp’s revival in october’s election, particularly in regina and saskatoon, appears to be providing no boost to its federal counterpart.
and the liberal brand that was considered so toxic in saskatchewan under justin trudeau that the provincial party changed its name somehow now seems to be resuscitated under carney.
but transforming the apparent liberal surge into actual saskatchewan seats still looks like a long shot despite supporters defecting from the ndp.
phil tank is the digital opinion editor at the saskatoon starphoenix.
our websites are your destination for up-to-the-minute saskatchewan news, so make sure to bookmark thestarphoenix.com and leaderpost.com. for regina leader-post newsletters click here; for saskatoon starphoenix newsletters click here
share story
