tank: carney liberals could snap conservatives' saskatchewan sweep streak
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a composite photo of liberal candidate buckley belanger, left, and conservative candidate jim lemaigre, who are running in the northern saskatchewan riding of desnethé–missinippi–churchill river in the federal election.
liam richards/kayle neis
nearly 20 years have passed since a liberal who was not named ralph goodale won a federal seat in saskatchewan.
in saskatoon, you would need to scroll back 32 years for the last time a liberal mp got elected. in 1993, jean chretien led the liberals to a majority government that included morris bodnar (saskatoon—dundurn) and georgette sheridan (saskatoon—humboldt). both lost 1997 re-election bids.
goodale, who represented a regina riding for 26 straight years, last sat with a fellow saskatchewan liberal mp in august of 2007.
that’s when gary merasty left politics 20 months after he posted a 67-vote victory over sitting conservative mp and now saskatchewan party minister jeremy harrison in the 2006 election in the northern desnethe—missinippi—churchill river seat.
since then, goodale alone represented our province for the liberals until his 2019 defeat. in the past two elections, the conservatives swept all 14 saskatchewan ridings. the liberals got less than 11 per cent of the vote in the 2021 election — the lowest of any jurisdiction in canada.
the justin trudeau liberals were deemed so toxic the provincial party changed its name. so saskatchewan expectations for liberals in this year’s federal election were likely located deep underground.
yet there remains, somehow, signs of a liberal breakthrough in saskatchewan’s conservative blue wall. the federal liberals’ revival under mark carney so far has been unprecedented. but indications the comeback may extend to saskatchewan qualify as downright miraculous.
a poll released monday of saskatoon residents showed an extremely close race between the liberals and the conservatives. and, in case you were wondering, it was released before april fool’s day.
the poll, conducted by liaison strategies for the national ethnic press and media council of canada, found conservative support at 43 per cent of decided and leaning voters and liberal support at 39 per cent.
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the poll of 603 voters, conducted using interactive voice response technology on saturday and sunday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.99 per cent 19 times out of 20. that means the apparent gap between the two leading parties lies within the margin of error.
as is the case nationally, the rise of the liberals in polls has come at the expense of the ndp. just 10 per cent backed the ndp in the saskatoon poll. that compares to 35 per cent in saskatoon in the 2021 federal vote, according to elections canada.
the conservatives got 48 per cent of the saskatoon vote in 2021, while the liberals in the unpopular trudeau’s last election as leader languished at 11 per cent.
with the campaign in full swing, the ndp lags the conservatives (with 14 nominated saskatchewan candidates), liberals (12) and green party (13) with just nine candidates nominated as of tuesday — and none listed on the party’s website for the three regina ridings.
regardless of fortunes elsewhere in saskatchewan, the liberals seem poised to win desnethe—missinippi—churchill where longtime ndp mla buckley belanger will run again.
belanger, who represented the overlapping athabasca seat in the legislature for 26 years, lost in 2021 to incumbent conservative gary vidal. vidal opted out of another campaign last year after the riding boundaries were redrawn to exclude meadow lake, where vidal lives and served as mayor prior to his federal run.
belanger will face conservative candidate jim lemaigre, who won the 2022 athabasca byelection in a major upset for the saskatchewan party, after belanger resigned to run federally. saskatchewan ndp leader ryan meili resigned shortly after the athabasca byelection loss.
lemaigre lost his provincial re-election bid in october. the ndp lists no candidate for the northern riding on its website, although one news report says lawyer doug racine will run. racine lost his bid for the provincial saskatchewan rivers seat for the ndp in october.
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but removing meadow lake from the northern riding, where 70 per cent of people are indigenous, leaves the conservatives at a disadvantage, as could adjustments to saskatoon boundaries to make seats more urban.
those changes, along with the improbable resurrection of the liberals, jeopardize prospects for a third straight saskatchewan sweep by the conservatives.
phil tank is the digital opinion editor at the saskatoon starphoenix.
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