lilley: ridings to watch in ontario's election this thursday
doug ford's pcs are expected to win a majority but we could see ridings change hands. here are ridings to watch.
5 minute read
we apologize, but this video has failed to load.
try refreshing your browser, or
tap here to see other videos from our team.
tap here to see other videos from our team.
the ontario election seems like a cake walk for doug ford and the pc party, but even if they do win, we could see several ridings change hands when voters go to the polls thursday. some ridings could switch from pc to ndp, ndp to liberal or anything in between.
while there are overarching issues that drive the narrative in a national or provincial election, there are also local issues, candidates and personalities that buck the trend or start a new local story line.
here are some of the ridings across ontario that you should be looking at come election day:
toronto-st. paul’s: the ndp took this riding from the liberals in 2018 and barely snuck through last time. now, jill andrew, the two-term new democrat faces serious candidates from the liberals and pc party. the liberals have offered up former cp24 news anchor stephanie smyth, a well known commodity in the toronto media market.
stephanie smyth is the liberal candidate in the riding of st. paul’s
the pc’s have nominated riley braunstein, a queen’s park staffer to carry the party banner. in the federal byelection last june, the riding flipped from liberal to conservative after decades over issues around capital gains tax changes for small businesses and the federal liberal government’s position on israel.
advertisement
eglinton-lawrence: this riding is currently held by the pcs, but incumbent robin martin has stepped down. that has led to a face-off between michelle cooper, a business executive who has spent the last few years working with the pc party and vince gasparro, a man who has split his career between political positions with former pm paul martin and toronto mayor john tory and working in environmental finance. he was until recently on the board of postmedia, the owner of this newspaper. there is no ndp candidate here because they dropped out at the last minute to endorse gasparro as a way to stop doug ford.
mississauga east-cooksville: this is the riding liberal leader bonnie crombie has decided to plant her flag in. while liberals will tell you they are secure in winning this riding, both the pcs and ndp believe that doug ford’s candidate silvia gualtieri will take it.
ontario liberal leader bonnie crombie opens her campaign headquarters in the mississauga-cooksville riding in mississauga, ont. on thursday, jan. 30, 2025.
ernest doroszuk
/
toronto sun/postmedia network
gualtieri has been involved in a family insurance business in the area for 30 years, her brother is rudy cuzzetto, the pc mpp for mississauga—lakeshore and her son-in-law is brampton mayor patrick brown. gualtieri has the full backing of brown’s formidable political machine in a riding where connections to the late mississauga mayor hazel mccallion will play a major role. both women are claiming they are the successors of hazel.
advertisement
recommended video
kanata-carleton: the riding of kanata-carleton may have only been created in 2018, but the area has been blue for decades. that is until the 2023 by-election that saw former liberal mp and army officer karen mccrimmon take the seat for the liberals. that byelection was focused on a very local issue, the ability of the owner of the kanata lakes golf course to stop operations and build more housing on the site. the case was before the courts and only ford’s pc party refused to say they would stop the development. the courts eventually sided with the developer. with that issue off the table, can the liberals still hold the riding? party leader bonnie crombie is hoping so; she’s had two visits within a week, but the pcs are confident they can take back this formerly safe seat.
ottawa west – nepean: this riding has been held by all three major parties over the last three elections and could go to any of them in this election. the ndp incumbent, chandra pasma, lost the 2018 election to pc candidate jeremy roberts by 175 vote but then defeated roberts by 1,086 in 2022.
ndp incumbent chandra pasma
the riding had previously been held for 15 years by the liberals. pasma is back for a third election and trying to figure out which party takes this riding won’t be an easy task.
advertisement
nepean: formerly held by tory lisa macleod, nepean is an ottawa-area riding that could be up for grabs. macleod won by just over 2,000 votes last time and health worker tyler watt has returned as the candidate for the liberals to try and flip it red. while the liberals haven’t held this area since 1995, they do hold the riding federally with liberal mp chandra arya being the mp since 2015. aarya was recently disqualified from running to be the federal liberal leader with the party saying he was unfit for office. without an incumbent, anything could happen.
hamilton-centre: this riding has been won by the ndp in every single election since 1990 and is currently up for grabs after the ndp won the riding in 2022 but then kicked mpp sarah jama from the ndp caucus in 2023.
sarah jama.
her despicable views on the israel-hamas war and her inability to work with colleagues saw her booted from the ndp and censured in the legislature. still, she could find enough radicals in hamilton to win re-election. if not, this could be a liberal pick up thanks to a split in the ndp vote.
sault ste. marie: the progressive conservatives won this riding with ross romano in 2017 for the first time since 1981. now that romano has stepped down, the riding is up for grabs. it’s an area that traditionally votes ndp or liberal but with doug ford’s moves to say he will protect workers in plants like algoma steel in, the pc’s may be vulnerable but aren’t out of the race. the ndp is trying to make this race all about health care, ford wants to make it about jobs
advertisement
other ridings to consider are spread out across the province.
the liberals are hoping to flip hamilton mountain from the current ndp hold. in hamilton east-stoney creek, the ndp want to win back the riding the pcs took thanks to a vote split in 2022.
in the near north, the pcs are hoping to take sudbury from the ndp just as they took timmins in 2022.
expect the liberals to pick up a seat or two in mississauga, if the party can turn out their voters.
ford and his pc party should win a majority, but who takes second place is up for grabs.
share story
