daphne bramham: china's threats against taiwan may force canada to pick a side
canada's relationship with china has soured after interference in its elections. now, abandoning its one-china policy seems more likely.
5 minute read
people take part in annual civil defence drills in front of taipei city hall earlier in may.
jameson wu
/
afp via getty images
taipei, taiwan — for years, canada has been like the “friend” who feels compelled to sneak out the back door and only meet in obscure places where half the time is spent looking over his shoulder to see if anybody’s watching.
in canada’s case, the friend is taiwan. the “anybody” is the people’s republic of china.
china has been the object of canada’s unrequited desire for 53 years. it has poured enormous energy and resources — political, business and academic — into the relationship.
but that all began to sour in 2018. chinese trade sanctions and beijing’s arbitrary incarceration of the two canadian michaels — spavor and kovrig — following the detention of huawei executive meng wanzhou.
now, following chinese president xi jinping’s promise to use force if necessary to “reunite” taiwan, canada may be forced to pick a side, ending an uneasy status quo that began before taiwan transformed into a democracy and became the world’s 15th-largest economy.
canada officially recognized the people’s republic of china’s legitimacy in 1970.
“the chinese government reaffirms that taiwan is an inalienable part of the territory of the people’s republic of china,” the formal communiqué said at the time. “the canadian government takes note of this position of the chinese government.”
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in an accompanying statement approved by china’s negotiators, canada said, “the canadian government does not consider it appropriate to either endorse or to challenge the chinese government’s position on the status of taiwan.”
this non-committal framework allowing continued trade with taiwan became known as the “canadian” formula. italy adopted it almost immediately. later, after taiwan was replaced at the united nations by china, the u.s. adopted it as well.
today, with china threatening to blockade the taiwan strait or invade, only 13 countries officially recognize the island democracy. only the u.s. has committed to defend it.
that is something taiwan is desperate to change. at a recent media briefing, taiwan’s foreign minister joseph wu talked about how it is trying to deter an invasion by rapidly beefing up its military capabilities and strengthening relations with a long list of “major countries”, including canada, the united states, britain, japan and australia.
in a later interview, wu described the taiwan-canada relationship as strong and getting stronger, even though it was 1998 when the last canadian minister visited.
speaking a day after canada expelled a chinese diplomat for gathering information to intimidate a canadian mp and his family in hong kong, wu talked about that and his admiration for canada.
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“canada is always a champion in democracy, freedom and human rights, so anything against those principles, i don’t think the canadian government or the people will accept that,” he said. “this incident is showing that china is probably not respecting the country’s sovereignty and rule of law.”
as for the strengthening relationship, the taiwanese government was heartened by canada’s recent steps to deepen its engagement.
in april, the special committee on canada-china relations released its report, canada and taiwan: a strong relationship in turbulent times.
the first recommendation reaffirmed the status quo — the “one china policy”. but the second caught the attention of both the taiwanese and chinese governments.
canada should “offer and declare its clear and unwavering commitment that the future of taiwan must only be the decision of the people of taiwan.”
the federal government hasn’t responded yet. it has 120 days.
but the chinese embassy in ottawa responded almost immediately, describing the report as “making wild talks on taiwan-related issues” and insisting that taiwan is “purely (a) china’s internal affair” that “brooks no foreign interference.”
a week after the report’s release, committee chair ken hardie (liberal mp for fleetwood-port kells) hand-delivered a copy to taiwan’s president tsai ing-wen, who described canada as “crucial partner to taiwan.”
president tsai ing-wen (middle front, in grey jacket) meets the canadian delegation. taiwan presidential office
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she told the parliamentarians that it is “essential that democracies stand united in the face of authoritarian expansionism”. tsai added that canada has already demonstrated its concern about peace and stability across the taiwan strait with its new indo-pacific strategy.
released in november, the strategy marked canada’s shift away from china toward a more regional approach — something that experts describe as “a generational shift”.
wu, who is also familiar with the document, welcomed canada’s shift away from china toward a more regional approach.
“the indo-pacific is important,” he told me. “it’s not only important for taiwan, but for the region as a whole to have a wide democratic bloc.”
still, there are only seven references to taiwan in 26 pages. four are about working with partners to “push back against any unilateral actions that threaten the taiwan strait.”
but three specifically mention working with taiwan on issues including trade, technology, health, indigenous relations, democratic governance, and countering disinformation.
seven references aren’t much. but as two senior taiwanese officials told me, seven is better than none, which is all there was before.
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canada also recently reopened talks with taiwan on a foreign investment promotion and protection agreement — essentially a free-trade agreement that outlines the rules.
it supported taiwan’s failed attempt to join the world health assembly and, earlier this month, signed an agreement to cooperate on health issues. the same week that was signed, b.c. announced the opening of a trade office in taipei.
taiwan is pushing canada to support its application to join the 11-member comprehensive and progressive agreement for trans-pacific partnership.
the other partnership members are australia, brunei, canada, chile, japan, malaysia, mexico, new zealand, peru, singapore, and vietnam.
as the second-largest economy in the 11-country bloc, canada could be influential in helping the island democracy get the unanimous support it needs to join.
canada remains non-committal even though taiwan meets all the standards for admission. supporting it poses a dilemma.
although it doesn’t meet the labour, environmental and human rights standards that canada helped bring to the agreement, china also wants to join.
if canada supports or the bloc accepts taiwan, china would almost certainly retaliate against them.
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canada also remains non-committal on whether it would help defend taiwan if the prc attacks.
prime minister justin trudeau called china’s april military exercises in the taiwan strait “problematic”. but all he offered was the bromide that “canada will continue to fight for democracy because that’s what canadians expect us to do.”
canadian public opinion is running heavily against china. but the reality is that international relationships aren’t about who we like best or who we agree with. they are mostly about money and business. and in that, even with a soured relationship, canada-china bilateral trade at $129 billion annually dwarfs the $11 billion in trade with taiwan.
still, wu is optimistic that values do matter.
“i think (canada) will consider everything and progress slowly,” he said.
but for now, canada is sticking to the old standard: non-committal.
daphne bramham was in taiwan at the invitation of the government along with 29 other journalists from 24 countries. the trip was funded by the government of taiwan.
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