adam zivo: zelenskyy outmaneuvers putin on istanbul peace talks
putin has long insisted that kyiv, not moscow, has been the real obstacle to peace — zelenskyy called his bluff
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ukraine's president volodymyr zelensky delivers a press conference in kyiv on may 13, 2025, amid the russian invasion of ukraine. zelensky urged the united states to levy its most hard-hitting package of sanctions on moscow if russian president rejects a call to meet in turkey this week. (photo by genya savilov / afp) (photo by genya savilov/afp via getty images)
last weekend, russian president vladimir putin delayed european-led sanctions against his regime by proposing that kyiv and moscow engage in direct peace talks in istanbul, turkey, this thursday. while putin appears to act in bad faith by stalling for time, his gambit backfired thanks to ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy’s shrewd maneuvering.
putin’s istanbul proposal emerged in the immediate aftermath of moscow’s annual may 9 “victory day” military parade, which traditionally commemorates the 1945 defeat of nazi germany but has recently transformed into a jingoistic propaganda exercise.
this year, the kremlin unilaterally announced a three-day ceasefire coinciding with the parade, but zelenskyy understandably rejected the arrangement and counter-proposed a more equitable 30-day ceasefire instead, which russia declined.
the 30-day ceasefire proposal found support, though among the leaders of the united kingdom, france, germany, and poland, who visited kyiv the day after victory day for a meeting of the “coalition of the willing.” after securing the approval of us president donald trump over the phone, they published a joint statement with ukraine calling for an “unconditional” and “comprehensive” ceasefire, lasting at least 30 days, which was supposed to begin this monday.
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the statement argued that such a ceasefire could “create room for diplomacy” and help negotiators outline “foundations of peace.” it further asserted that ukraine’s military, as the primary guarantor of ukrainian sovereignty, should be strengthened and that a “reassurance force” of foreign troops should be stationed in the country to provide further security.
“[we] agreed that if russia refuses a full and unconditional ceasefire, stronger sanctions should be applied to its banking and energy sectors, targeting fossil fuels, oil and the shadow fleet,” read the statement.
tighter sanctions could prove devastating to the russian economy, which is already sputtering under high inflation and elevated interest rates. there is also reportedly broad congressional support within the united states to implement comprehensive sanctions alongside ukraine’s european partners, which could include a 500 per cent tariff on imports from countries that purchase russian oil and gas.
however reasonable and proportionate these terms might have been, they were obviously unpalatable for russia. not only has putin vehemently opposed the stationing of western troops in ukraine, he has insisted that long-term ceasefires should only be implemented after the conclusion of peace negotiations, not as a precondition for talks, presumably because this would allow him to press his military advantages and extract greater concessions from kyiv.
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this is precisely why the proposal was an excellent maneuver. putin has long insisted that kyiv, not moscow, has been the real obstacle to peace — so why not call his bluff?
unfortunately, putin was too clever to take the bait. rather than explicitly reject the western-backed ceasefire, he simply ignored it and proposed direct peace talks in istanbul instead. crucially, he framed these talks as a continuation of earlier istanbul-based negotiations that occurred in the spring of 2022 and insisted that they follow the same principles.
yet, in those first rounds of negotiations, moscow had sought not peace, but surrender. its original proposals included limiting ukraine’s forces to 85,000 troops, 342 tanks and 519 artillery pieces, accounting to roughly a 60-70 per cent reduction of the country’s prewar military power. furthermore, kyiv would have been banned from joining any military alliances, or hosting any foreign soldiers or bases, and would have had to rely on “security guarantees” from a handful of unspecified countries whose protection would’ve been subject to a russian veto.
such restrictions would’ve left ukraine utterly defenseless against further russian invasions, guaranteeing eventual vassalization. they were entertained largely because ukraine was negotiating from a position of weakness, but talks collapsed after the discovery of russia’s bucha massacre made continuation politically and ethically impossible.
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three years later, little has changed. putin maintains that peace can only be achieved if the war’s “root causes” are addressed, which is code for the installation of a puppet regime in kyiv. he also wants ukraine to abandon the four provinces russia “annexed” in late 2022, even though russian troops only partially occupy these lands. in other words: russia’s notions of “peace” remain indistinguishable from ukraine’s subjugation.
in light of these facts, ukraine and its european allies initially rejected the renewed istanbul talks and prepared to move forward with harsher sanctions. then trump blindsided everyone by posting on truth social that he supported putin’s solution and that peace talks should begin “immediately.” amid the uncertainty, the much-hyped sanctions were postponed.
zelenskyy quickly turned the situation back to his advantage by publicly challenging putin to a one-on-one meeting in turkey. “there is no point in prolonging the killings. and i will be waiting for putin in (turkey) on thursday. personally. i hope that this time the russians will not look for excuses,” he wrote on x on sunday.
this created a dilemma for putin: either skip the istanbul talks and risk appearing weak and uncommitted to peace, or attend and legitimize an archnemesis.
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after dithering for several days, the russians announced at the last minute that they would send a low-level delegation to istanbul and that putin would not attend the talks that he himself proposed. this was enough to expose the istanbul process as a farce and to reportedly place the imperiled sanctions plan back on course for american and european lawmakers.
putin made his play, and he failed — all because zelenskyy told him to put his money where his mouth is.
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