adam zivo: putin outplays trump again with phoney peace talks
the united states is prolonging the war by delaying sanctions against russia
4 minute read
this combination of pictures created on march 17, 2025 shows, l-r, us president donald trump in the oval office of the white house in washington, dc, on march 13, 2025 and russia's president vladimir putin at the kremlin in moscow on march 13, 2025.
mandel nganmaxim shemetov/afp/pool/afp via getty images
u.s. president donald trump announced earlier this week that russia and ukraine will “immediately” begin ceasefire talks after he had an “excellent” two-hour phone call with russian president vladimir putin. this is not a positive development: putin is playing trump for a fool and has no interest in these potemkin negotiations beyond undermining european-led sanctions.
from the outset of this war, it has been clear that moscow’s idea of “peace” amounts to the dismantlement of ukraine’s sovereignty and national identity.
putin has steadfastly insisted — for three long years — that the war cannot end until its “root causes” are addressed, which is code for the installation of a “demilitarized” pro-russian puppet regime in kyiv. he has further demanded that ukraine withdraw its troops from the four ukrainian provinces moscow “annexed” in late 2022, which russian forces have managed to only partially occupy so far.
these provinces include significant swathes of territory west of the dnipro river, a natural defensive barrier that has been crucial for containing russia’s advances. handing over these lands would not only condemn millions of additional ukrainians to occupation, it would also give moscow a bridgehead for the conquest of central ukraine.
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regime change, sweeping land concessions and asymmetrical disarmament are not conditions of peace, but surrender. a precursor to full annexation, not co-existence. as long as russia refuses to budge here, any negotiations to end the war will be an exercise in futility.
putin must change his approach, but formidable ideological, political and economic factors dissuade him from doing so.
in the summer of 2021, just months before launching his full-scale invasion, he published a 5,000 word essay arguing that ukrainians are merely wayward russians who must be reunited with their eastern “big brother.” although this narrative is rife with historical revisionism, he seems to ardently believe it: the war is a righteous crusade for him, and crusaders are not easily discouraged.
atop this moral dimension, putin’s own physical survival arguably depends on the successful prosecution of this war. should he deliver compromises instead of victories, there is a significant risk that he will be overthrown and potentially executed — something which the wagner group’s uprising of 2023 illustrated well.
but even ending the war on relatively favourable terms could be dangerous.
profligate wartime spending has created the illusion of a russian economic boom, but, as with any government stimulus spree, the hangover eventually arrives. russia’s economy is already sputtering, thanks to high inflation and elevated interest rates. ending hostilities and abruptly terminating the associated public expenditures could trigger short-term stagnation or even a recession, which could threaten the legitimacy of putin’s regime.
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russian officials also reportedly fear that demobilizing hundreds of thousands of troops could lead to a wave of political instability, as happened in the soviet union following the 1989 withdrawal from afghanistan. russian veterans returning from ukraine have already shown a proclivity for violence and crime in their home communities — viciousness begets viciousness, it seems. if that aggression were to be multiplied, and funnelled into anti-government civil society groups, the consequences could be dire.
because of these factors, security experts believe that putin will not genuinely seek peace until no other options are available. he must be bullied into compromise. until that point is reached, russia’s negotiations should be understood as a game of manipulation: delay, obfuscate, confuse, divide.
that’s why, earlier this month, ukraine’s main european allies (the united kingdom, france, germany and poland) issued an ultimatum to the kremlin: accept an unconditional 30-day ceasefire on may 12, followed by serious peace negotiations, or face far tighter sanctions.
putin didn’t like that. he has always maintained that a long-term ceasefire should come after a peace deal, not before. why stop the fighting when you can just mire everyone in a diplomatic quagmire and press your military advantages? so he ignored the ceasefire proposal and suggested direct peace talks in istanbul instead.
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ukraine and its allies saw this as a delaying technique, but were forced to play along after trump voiced his support for the initiative. although ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy called putin’s bluff and challenged him to a face-to-face meeting in istanbul, russia sent only a low-level delegation that proceeded to sabotage the talks by demanding that ukraine hand over its aforementioned, partially occupied provinces.
the istanbul fiasco should have been a victory for ukraine. it confirmed that russia is engaging in bad faith and that sanctions should be tightened immediately. but then trump had a two-hour, reportedly very friendly, talk with putin and declared the beginning of new peace talks. this, of course, meant delaying sanctions — just as the russian president wanted.
the white house claims that sanctions against russia are still on the table and may be implemented if moscow doesn’t negotiate in good faith. it is hard to take this seriously, though, when istanbul illustrated — just last week! — that this is already happening. trump is apparently willing to give the russians as many chances as possible, and limitless do-overs, to protect them from real accountability.
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worse yet, his administration has signalled that it prioritizes trading with the russians, and that, if these new negotiations don’t succeed, the united states may simply walk away from negotiations, which only gives russia fewer reasons to seriously pursue peace.
trump’s naivety is prolonging this war, not ending it. his ignorance will cost the world dearly.
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