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b.c. conservatives gain ground before leadership vote as ndp support softens: poll
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premier david eby speaks at the b.c. legislature on thursday, april 2.
alec lazenby
/
postmedia
support for the b.c. conservative party has increased, even before its new leader is chosen, while the governing ndp’s popularity continues to show signs of waning, a new leger poll has found.
leger vice-president steve mossop said the latest survey suggests the conservatives are gaining early momentum following former leader john rustad’s resignation, the entry of several leadership contenders, and the launch of the leadership race.
“there’s an uptick in the conservative vote even before we see the (debates) and leadership vote and the publicity that comes with a new leader,” he said.
“if i was the ndp i’d be a bit worried about that. … it’s not alarm bells yet, but it should be concerning.”
the ndp is still ahead, with 44 per cent support among decided voters, down from a peak of 48 per cent last fall, found the poll, conducted online in early april.
the conservatives, at 40 per cent, picked up two points since january at the expense of the now-defunct onebc party, which dropped from six per cent to three per cent.
premier david eby leads on approval among party leaders at 43 per cent — a “strong number,” said mossop — handily beating green leader emily lowan and onebc’s dallas brodie. but that’s the lowest it’s been since he took over as ndp leader and premier after john horgan’s retirement.
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eby’s disapproval rating has also jumped up significantly over the past year, going from 35 per cent last may to 44 per cent, said the survey, as voter dissatisfaction remains high and more than half of respondents believing the province is on the wrong track.
“his performance on certain files is what i think voters are getting tired of,” said mossop, highlighting recent fumbles by eby’s government including the handling of indigenous reconciliation.
eby is seeking to suspend portions of the declaration of the rights of indigenous peoples act after two landmark court decisions, straining relationships with first nations leaders.
the first decision involves a recent case won by the gitxaała nation that found the province’s mineral claims regime was “inconsistent” with dripa, while the second is the cowichan decision that raised questions on how aboriginal title impacts private property. the government is appealing both decisions.
voters are also unhappy about the province’s ballooning deficit, projected to reach a record $13.3 billion for the 2026-27 fiscal year with more deficits expected over the next two years.
with the spotlight on the province’s books, leger added the deficit as an option among about 20 issues it asked voters about in the latest poll.
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five per cent identified the deficit as the most important issue facing the province, considerably lower than other issues such as housing affordability, at 15 per cent, and health care, at 14 per cent, but on par with issues about crime and public safety and higher than poverty and the opioid crisis.
“it’s made its mark,” said mossop, adding that there is an overall feeling among british columbians that the ndp government is spending beyond its means.
the survey found 46 per cent of people think the government is spending too much and running too large a deficit, with 22 per cent saying it is spending “about right” and a smaller proportion, 12 per cent, saying they should spend more even if it increases deficits.
even among ndp supporters, nearly 30 per cent says they’re spending too much, noted mossop.
more than three-quarters of respondents expressed unease with the government operating in the red: 35 per cent said deficits should be limited, even if it means reduced spending, and 24 per cent said deficits should be avoided and the budget should be balanced as soon as possible.
“this could end up being their achilles heel,” mossop said.
with previous deficits, the ndp has managed to fly under the radar with opposition groups and business groups speaking out the deficit, “but now there is more publicity around the endless spending, and the settlements with the public sector,” he added. “when you’re seeing three per cent increases each year and all the private-sector people are saying ‘i’m not getting that, that’s not fair.’”
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the leger survey was conducted among 1,003 b.c. residents 18 years old and older from april 3 to 6. for comparison purposes, a probability sample of the same size yields a margin of error of +/- 3.1 per cent.
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