federal election 2025: why and where b.c.'s political landscape could change
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heading into the federal election campaign, b.c. was painted as an even mix of red, blue and orange, with one lone dot of green.
but political observers predict an explosion of colours after the ballots have been counted monday, with the potential of multiple b.c. seats swapping their hues.
“b.c., more than any other province, has a lot of contested ridings,” said simon fraser university political scientist sanjay jeram. “the most ridings that are really up for grabs.”
that’s largely because of the apparent collapse of the ndp, which garnered more than 29 per cent of ballots cast in b.c. during the 2021 federal election. that’s far higher than the support new democrats got nationally four years ago, so their fall sends shock waves.
some orange ridings are expected to swing blue, possibly on vancouver island, in the interior and up north, while polls suggest many in urban areas could turn red — creating a new political landscape.
b.c. had 42 seats in the 2021 election, which were distributed with 15 for the liberals, 13 each for the conservatives and ndp, and one for the greens. that seat distribution was even closer going into this campaign because the conservatives handily snatched cloverdale-langley city from the liberals in a byelection last december.
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this time, the province has 43 seats up for grabs, with the addition of the new vernon-lake country-monashee riding in the interior, a region where the conservatives traditionally have strong support.
with the changing political winds, polls suggest the liberals could capture up to 25 of b.c.’s seats, the conservatives up to 20, the ndp four or fewer, and the greens one or zero.
“it’s a radical shift in our party makeup,” said steve mossop, western canada vice-president of the leger market research company.
a leger poll released tuesday shows b.c. largely mirrors the rest of the country in voting intention for the two main parties: roughly 43 per cent for the liberals and 39 per cent for the conservatives. slightly more british columbians back the ndp, at about 10 per cent, and the greens, at roughly four per cent, than the rest of the country.
while the conservatives have narrowly shrunk the gap between themselves and the liberals, the voting intention numbers have been largely static. that’s mainly because the majority of the electorate has disregarded traditional campaign issues, and instead are making their no. 1 priority choosing a leader to deal with u.s. president donald trump’s annexation and tariff threats.
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“we haven’t had an election like this, where … the campaign is all about one issue,” said mossop.
any influence b.c. has on the formation of the next federal government depends on how votes split in seat-rich ontario and quebec. it’s possible that b.c. could play a kingmaker role for the front-runner, liberal leader mark carney.
“it may well be the case, as it was in 2015, that b.c. will determine if we have a majority or minority government,” said political scientist hamish telford, of the university of the fraser valley.
the conservative and ndp leaders have made multiple stops in battleground b.c., while carney has flown here twice. “that says b.c. is maybe more important than what they have been in the past,” said mossop.
carney stopped on wednesday in surrey, new westminster and victoria, after visiting richmond and victoria two weeks earlier.
conservative leader pierre poilievre came to coquitlam and nanaimo after the writ was issued in march, visited northern b.c. and the interior in early april, and richmond and surrey last weekend.
ndp leader jagmeet singh is fighting hard to keep his riding of burnaby central. he also hit the hustings in vancouver, nanaimo and victoria last weekend.
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“we’ve seen, for example, the extent to which the ndp, and particularly the conservatives, have been spending time in places like richmond and surrey. why are they going there? because it’s really important,” said shachi kurl, president of the angus reid institute.
here is why those ridings are strategically important for the leaders:
fraser valley
conservative leader pierre poilievre holds a rally in surrey on mar. 27
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in 2021, the liberals won four of surrey’s five ridings, with the conservatives claiming one. however, poilievre’s party took one away from the liberals in a landslide byelection win last december.
highly prized ridings, such as cloverdale-langley city and surrey centre, have brought the liberal and conservative leaders to this growing city.
during last year’s provincial election, voters in surrey swung to the b.c. conservatives, so the federal party is now hoping to capitalize on that, said telford. but he’s not convinced that more of surrey will go blue this time, as he doesn’t think poilievre’s main talking points have resonated as strongly.
since carney took over the leadership, the liberals have “their mojo back,” kurl said. and that reversal from the party’s previous low polling numbers increases the odds the liberals can hold, or expand, their three seats in surrey.
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jeram, though, said poilievre’s consistent message about being tough on crime could be attractive to some voters in hotly contested communities east of vancouver. “i think that could play a role in some of those fraser valley ridings that are still in play.”
those ridings include tory stronghold langley township-fraser heights and swing riding pitt meadows-maple ridge, both won by the conservatives in 2021. polling suggests the liberals are nipping at their heels this campaign.
“it’s definitely a possibility that with the collapse of the ndp vote in these ridings that the liberals might be able to recapture — or, in the case of langley, steal — ridings that they’re not normally competitive in,” telford said.
even in abbotsford, traditionally safe conservative territory, the liberals “seem to be in play,” although turning the area’s two ridings red is far from certain, he added.
the situation in abbotsford-south langley is unusual this election because former provincial cabinet minister mike de jong is running a strong race as an independent after being rejected as a conservative candidate. he may split the centre-right vote, telford said.
vancouver and neighbouring ridings
federal ndp leader jagmeet singh greets supporters on a vancouver picket line on apr. 8.
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political observers question whether the ndp can keep strongholds, such as port moody-coquitlam and new westminster-burnaby-maillardville, or even burnaby central, singh’s home riding. liberal candidates, jeram predicted, could ride the carney wave to turn those districts red, despite ndp incumbents campaigning hard to keep them.
singh has tried to convince past supporters to send some ndp mps to ottawa, even if the party can’t form government, to keep pressure on the next prime minister for social programs, such as pharmacare and dental care. but jeram isn’t sure progressive voters are internalizing that message, especially if they are swinging to the liberals and carney has not threatened to end those programs.
jeram will be keeping an eye on ndp stalwarts jenny kwan in vancouver east and don davies in vancouver kingsway, both of whom he believes have the ground game and personal popularity to keep their seats orange.
“i’m not sure in some of those ridings outside of vancouver proper that they really have the muster to keep those (ndp) seats,” he added.
an angus reid poll released monday said 49 per cent of voters in vancouver, burnaby and new westminster were behind the liberals, with 27 per cent for the conservatives and 21 per cent for the ndp.
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the conservatives’ promises to be tough on crime and addictions don’t appear to resonate with urban voters close to vancouver’s downtown where, ironically, substance use and street crimes are prevalent, jeram said.
but they may be landing with voters in other metro vancouver cities.
richmond centre-marpole and richmond east-steveston, for example, are both held by liberals, but polls suggest the conservatives could flip these ridings. poilievre was in richmond april 19 to announce he’d give judges the power to sentence drug-addicted offenders to mandatory treatment, while carney held a rally there april 7.
vancouver island
liberal leader mark carney in victoria on april 6.
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the canadian press
the biggest shakeup in b.c. this election may be on vancouver island, where the ndp won six seats and the greens took one during the 2021 federal race.
“that’s going to change significantly,” predicted university of victoria political scientist justin liefso.
this time, all seven seats could change hands. the conservatives appear to have a good chance of winning the three seats in the north and central part of the island, where poilievre’s messaging on affordability may be attracting support, he said.
“the way that part of the island went in the provincial election, it just seems like the conservatives have a lot of momentum.”
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polls suggest backing for the conservatives is also up in the southern part of the island, but the outcome for those seats is less clear based on whether former ndp supporters decide to switch to the liberals in an effort to block a tory win, liefso said.
strategic voting could also hurt popular green party co-leader elizabeth may, who has held her saanich-gulf islands seat since 2011.
liefso believes the sudden change in political dynamics that resulted in a surge in liberal popularity may split the centre-left vote in may’s riding, making a conservative victory a possibility. “six months ago, it would have been almost a certainty that (may) could carry that riding.”
the liberals, liefso said, “have a shot” at winning the riding of victoria, which has been ndp since 2006, but was held by former liberal cabinet minister david anderson for a decade before that. carney and singh have both campaigned in the sought-after victoria riding.
kurl notes that, despite trump’s tariffs harming so many industries, unionized workers in forestry towns on the island still have not rallied around the ndp. “(tariffs) are having catastrophic impacts, for example on the union-dependent, working-class lumber communities, and the ndp has seen no bounce,” she said.
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two ndp ridings elsewhere in b.c., skeena-bulkley valley and similkameen-south okanagan-west kootenay, may also turn blue, polls suggest.
after the dramatic change in political fortunes over the last few months, mossop said the gap between the conservatives and liberals has tightened in the last week, which means voter turnout will be crucial to determine how many seats each party wins in b.c.
that’s because conservative support is highest among voters 18 to 34, but the statistical likelihood of that age group showing up to cast a ballot is about 50 per cent.
on the other hand, the liberals have far more support from those aged 55 or older, who have a better track record of voting, mossop said.
in this election, every vote may count given the “highly unusual” race that has emerged in b.c., where residents previously showed relatively equal support for the federal liberals, conservatives and ndp, mossop said.
“now we’ve got a two-party race. the ndp is off the chart, and the greens are even quite a bit lower. so that’s the nuance in british columbia.”
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