daphne bramham: taiwan prepares for chinese invasion with hopes for peace
taiwan is preparing for war, hoping that a military build-up coupled with support from other democracies will deter china from invasion.
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people take part during an annual civilian defence drill in front of taipei city hall earlier this month, which this year focused on the response from various agencies and volunteer groups if under attack by china.
ann wang
/
reuters
taipei, taiwan — taiwan is preparing for war in the hope that it can maintain the uneasy peace that has dominated its relationship with china for most of modern history.
some here believe an invasion is imminent. others predict it won’t occur until 2027 because china and its people’s liberation army are not yet ready.
but nobody in taiwan is waiting. they can’t afford to.
“national defence is indispensable if we are to maintain peace,” said joseph hua, secretary-general of the mainland affairs council.
“taiwan is a sovereign, independent state. it was never a part of mainland china. this is the status quo. this is the reality of people living in taiwan,” he said at a recent briefing for international journalists.
“we are not trying to persuade china about what we want. but we do not accept what china is trying to impose on us.”
hua and others stress that if there is war, china will have started it. and it could happen at any time. since last summer, when china conducted live-fire exercises off taiwan in response to a visit by then-u.s. house speaker nancy pelosi, tensions have continued to rise across the 180-kilometre taiwan strait with chinese president xi jinping making clear his determination that the island will be part of the people’s republic of china, even if 23 million taiwanese people don’t agree.
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to prepare for the worst-case scenario, taiwan’s military spending has been boosted and orders placed for dozens of different kinds of equipment on order from high-tech fighter jets to grenade launchers, chemical, biological and nuclear protective equipment, and binoculars.
it undertook its own live-fire drills this week along north coast beaches to test the army’s ability to react swiftly to an invasion.
mandatory military service for young men was recently boosted to a year from four months, while women reservists are now being trained for combat.
civil groups — not quite militias, as ketty chen of the taiwan foundation for democracy described them — are training young people in first aid, weapons handling and street combat.
an 18-month supply of food has been stockpiled. there are plans for more storage facilities for liquefied natural gas because lng and coal provide 40 per cent of the island’s electricity generation. currently, if china were to blockade taiwan, it only has enough lng to last eight days.
“i want to stress the determination on taiwan’s side to defend itself,” foreign minister joseph wu said at a briefing for international reporters. “we are not in a position to ask other countries to fight for taiwan, if taiwan is not willing to fight for itself.”
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earlier, he said while taiwan is determined to defend itself, it needs the united states and other “critical partners” to supply the defence materials.
“moral support is also critical,” he said. “it lets us know that we are not alone.”
wu noted that it has received support from baltic states and some other eastern european countries that threw off communism in the 1980s.
difficult as it is for an island nation the size of vancouver island and a population of 23 million to stand up to china, it’s harder still for a pariah state.
it was dumped by the united nations in 1971 in a vote that declared the people’s republic of china the only china and taiwan a renegade province.
currently, only 13 countries recognize taiwan — most of which you’ve likely never heard of, or are unable to place on a map.
“one china” policies in an overwhelming majority of countries (including canada) have kept taiwan out of other international groups, including the world health organization with the sadly ironic motto of “leave no one behind.”
the paradox of taiwan is that it is everything that western countries such as canada have long proselytized. it has a stable democracy and a dedication to human rights, open media, the rule of law, and adherence to world trade rules.
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with little help from outside, 38 years of martial law was ended peacefully. while democracy flourished, the agrarian economy has been transformed. a world leader in technology, taiwan is the world’s 15th-largest economy, supplying 60 per cent of the world’s semiconductors and over 90 per cent of the most advanced ones that power everything from electric cars to cellphones.
as the economist magazine recently suggested, it gives the world “a big reason to defend the island.” its so-called “silicon shield” is also a good reason for china not to invade since its lucrative computer manufacturing industry depends on taiwan’s chips as much or more than any other country.
alongside taiwan, china has also become rich. its megalopolises are more than a match for taipei’s mega-malls, plethora of luxury stores, and stunning architecture.
but decades of western dreaming that engagement would transform the people’s republic into a democracy have been fruitless. instead, president xi jinping’s china is increasingly autocratic, expansionist and bellicose.
taiwanese are hyper-aware of what’s happened in hong kong since china regained control in 1997. it has reneged on a 50-year commitment to the so-called “one country, two systems,” crushed the democracy movement, imposed a draconian national security law, jailed journalists, and banned books about the 1989 tiananmen square massacre from public libraries.
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here, you also hear lots of talk about ukraine. taiwanese have taken heart from its struggle against russia and autocracy, hoping that they too can attract the support needed to defend against china.
if taiwan’s appeal to values doesn’t resonate, government officials and others are quick to make a strong business case.
a chinese blockade of the taiwan strait would not only curtail production and flow of semi-conductors, it would disrupt up to 40 per cent of global shipping trade — an estimated $3.4 trillion us — potentially plunging the world even deeper into recession.
earlier this year, the u.s.-based center for strategic and international studies released the results of 24 different scenarios for a chinese invasion.
in most, a coalition of taiwan, japan and the united states won. but victory came at tremendous cost.
the allies lost tens of thousands of service members, dozens of ships and hundreds of aircraft.
the taiwanese economy was devastated. the united states’ global position damaged for many years to come.
tens of thousands of chinese soldiers ended up as prisoners of war. its navy was in shambles, and the failure to occupy taiwan threatened to destabilize chinese communist party rule.
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preparing for war to ensure peace? for all our sakes, we had better hope that it works.
daphne bramham was in taiwan at the invitation of the government along with 29 other journalists from 24 countries.
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