saskatoon sewage analysis shows 300 per cent increase in covid-19
"this rapid increase in viral rna load in the wastewater is expected to be predictive of a rapid increase in new cases in saskatoon."
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by: phil tank
saskatoon could be seeing an increase in covid-19 cases not witnessed since november, according to the latest analysis of the city’s wastewater.
from april 16 to 20, researchers detected a 312-per-cent increase in the viral rna load of the virus that causes covid-19 in saskatoon’s wastewater compared to the period april 6 to 15.
“this rapid increase in viral rna load in the wastewater is expected to be predictive of a rapid increase in new cases in saskatoon,” says an update from the global institute for water security at the university of saskatchewan. “the last time viral load in the wastewater was comparable to these levels (in november 2020), saskatoon saw case numbers rise to (more than 100) per day in the following week(s).”
people begin to shed the covid-19 virus in their stool within 24 hours of contracting the virus, but may never show symptoms or get tested to confirm they have contracted it.
testing of sewage can help forecast a rise in cases.
the current analysis confirms that most cases in saskatoon — 86 per cent — are identified as the b.1.1.7 variant of concern first identified in the united kingdom. that’s a slight increase from the previous analysis.
the other two variants of concern detected in saskatchewan were not found in the wastewater, the update says.
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the p1 variant — first recorded in brazil — and the b.1.351 variant — first found in south africa — have been confirmed elsewhere in the province, though in much smaller numbers than b.1.17. the variants of concern have proved to be more transmissible than the original virus.
active covid-19 cases rose sharply in november in the saskatoon zone, which includes some communities outside saskatchewan’s largest city. active cases in the saskatoon zone peaked at 1,538 on dec. 7 before falling amid tightened public health restrictions.
active cases hit 524 last week before dropping to 465 on monday. the province has identified 638 variants of concern to date through screening of positive tests in the saskatoon zone.
the province reported 39 new cases in the saskatoon zone monday.
the global institute for water security publishes updated studies on wastewater in saskatoon every monday.
the previous analysis showed an 18-per-cent drop in the viral rna load in saskatoon’s wastewater.
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